Headline
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited questions about how his presidency will shape U.S.-Philippine relations, given his distinct blend of protectionism, nationalism, and an unpredictable approach to foreign policy.
For the Philippines—a country balancing security concerns, economic growth, and a strategic location in the Asia-Pacific—Trump’s policies could create both opportunities and complex challenges. As Filipino businesses and policymakers prepare for this shifting dynamic, a nuanced understanding of Trump’s influence on key areas like military cooperation, economic policy, and diplomatic relations will be crucial.
1. Recalibrating Military Cooperation: Opportunities and the Strategic Calculus in a Tense South China Sea
For the Philippines, Trump’s assertive stance on China and his prioritization of a strengthened U.S. military presence in Asia could offer advantages in terms of security. However, these benefits come with risks that require careful navigation.
- Strengthened Security Commitments with Strategic Ambiguity: Under Trump, the U.S. took a tough line on China’s military expansion, particularly in the South China Sea—a region where the Philippines is a critical stakeholder. Trump’s support during the 2017 Marawi siege demonstrated his administration’s willingness to provide tactical aid and intelligence. If Trump strengthens U.S. defense commitments, this could give the Philippines more leverage to assert its maritime claims. However, the Philippines must remain wary of becoming a proxy battleground; aligning too closely with the U.S. could provoke China, with whom the Philippines shares crucial trade ties. A strategy of “strategic ambiguity” might be essential, where the Philippines cooperates with U.S. security interests without outright provoking Chinese opposition.
- Risk of Becoming a Regional Flashpoint: Trump’s unpredictable approach to diplomacy could escalate tensions, making the Philippines vulnerable to increased military pressure from both China and the U.S. Unlike past U.S. presidents who adhered to a more multilateral stance, Trump’s direct, bilateral style could lead to abrupt changes in U.S. support, depending on shifting political winds. This could leave the Philippines in a precarious position. To mitigate this, Filipino defense strategists might explore deepening defense partnerships with regional players like Japan, Australia, and even South Korea to build a regional coalition that offers security without complete reliance on the U.S.
- A Reassessed Mutual Defense Treaty? The Philippines-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty has long been a cornerstone of security cooperation, but its ambiguous language on defense obligations has raised questions about its applicability in case of conflict in the South China Sea. Trump’s assertive stance may provide an opportunity for the Philippines to renegotiate terms, clarifying mutual expectations. By doing so, the Philippines could secure more concrete commitments while maintaining flexibility, ensuring it remains a resilient partner in U.S. defense policy without over-committing.
2. Economic Policies and “America First”: Navigating the Risks to Trade and Outsourcing
Trump’s “America First” policy, which emphasizes protecting American industries, jobs, and reducing dependency on foreign economies, could significantly impact Philippine economic sectors, particularly those reliant on U.S. trade and outsourcing.
- Vulnerabilities in the BPO Industry: The BPO sector is a critical economic driver in the Philippines, accounting for billions in revenue and supporting thousands of jobs. During Trump’s previous term, his administration encouraged American companies to keep jobs within the U.S., which posed a challenge for outsourcing-dependent economies. If Trump’s renewed term sees policies that discourage or even penalize outsourcing, Philippine BPO firms could face a decline in U.S. contracts. Filipino businesses may need to pivot toward diversifying their client bases, targeting markets in Europe or Asia to offset potential losses from the U.S.
- Philippine Export Sector and Potential Tariffs: Trump’s trade policies included imposing tariffs on certain imports to protect U.S. industries. Should his administration introduce similar tariffs on goods from Southeast Asia, Filipino exporters in industries like agriculture and manufacturing could be directly impacted. To reduce vulnerability, the Philippines could negotiate trade agreements with other nations or regional blocs, such as the European Union or ASEAN’s RCEP, to diversify export markets and minimize dependency on U.S. trade policies.
- Impact on Remittances and Immigration: With millions of Filipinos working abroad, primarily in the U.S., the Philippines is one of the world’s largest recipients of remittances. However, Trump’s tough stance on immigration could make it more challenging for Filipinos to secure work visas or pathways to citizenship, which would impact remittance flows crucial to the Philippine economy. To counter potential disruptions, policymakers could explore strengthening job creation and investment at home, reducing reliance on overseas work by incentivizing local entrepreneurship and attracting foreign direct investment.
3. U.S.-China-Philippines Geopolitical Dynamics: A Diplomatic Balancing Act
Trump’s return to the presidency could reignite the U.S.-China rivalry, with the Philippines potentially caught in the middle due to its proximity and strategic maritime location. Understanding Trump’s approach to China and how the Philippines can navigate these tensions will be essential.
- Leveraging Trump’s Anti-China Stance as a Deterrent: Trump’s hawkish stance on China—marked by trade wars, tariffs, and a commitment to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea—could serve as a deterrent against Chinese expansionism. For the Philippines, aligning with Trump on security concerns may strengthen its territorial claims. However, this alliance should be strategic rather than overt, allowing the Philippines to assert its sovereignty without becoming overly dependent on U.S. support, which may fluctuate based on Trump’s evolving policies or other domestic pressures.
- Mitigating Economic Fallout with China: The Philippines shares deep trade ties with China, which accounts for a significant portion of its imports and exports. If Trump reignites economic conflict with China, the Philippines could face disruptions in trade and supply chains. Filipino leaders might consider intensifying bilateral trade discussions with China to insulate its economy from broader U.S.-China tensions. By proactively strengthening its own trade agreements, the Philippines can maintain economic stability even if regional dynamics shift unpredictably.
- ASEAN and Regional Diplomacy as a Buffer: To avoid becoming over-reliant on either the U.S. or China, the Philippines could bolster its engagement within ASEAN and the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, and the U.S.). This approach would enhance regional cooperation, giving the Philippines greater leverage to pursue its interests. With Trump’s often unilateral policies, regional solidarity within ASEAN may also serve as a stabilizing counterforce, enabling the Philippines to maintain a balanced diplomatic stance.
4. Human Rights, Governance, and Global Perceptions: Navigating Soft Power under Trump’s Non-Interventionist Lens
Trump’s foreign policy style often sidesteps human rights concerns, focusing instead on strategic and economic goals. This approach may give Philippine leaders more leeway in domestic policies but could also impact the Philippines’ international reputation and its soft power.
- Implications for the Philippines’ Global Standing: Trump’s non-interventionist stance could allow the Philippines to pursue its domestic policies without interference, as seen with his previous approach to Duterte’s war on drugs. However, distancing itself from global human rights norms may lead to reputational risks. Countries and organizations advocating for human rights may view the Philippines with increased scrutiny, potentially impacting foreign aid, trade privileges, or foreign investment that values ethical governance.
- Soft Power as a Tool for Economic Diplomacy: If the Philippines seeks to maintain global partnerships, it may need to assert a more active stance on issues like climate change, sustainable development, and human rights. By emphasizing its leadership in these areas, the Philippines could offset any negative perceptions arising from Trump’s influence. For instance, Filipino leaders could champion climate resilience and environmental sustainability within ASEAN or other international forums, strengthening the Philippines’ role as a responsible and cooperative global partner.
- Building a “People-Centric” Foreign Policy: In contrast to Trump’s often transactional approach, the Philippines might adopt a “people-centric” diplomacy that emphasizes shared values and long-term partnerships with other countries. This could involve intensifying educational and cultural exchanges, particularly within the Asia-Pacific, to reinforce the Philippines’ commitment to mutual development and cooperation, independent of the current U.S. administration’s policies.
Conclusion: Navigating an Era of Complexity with Strategic Foresight
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency brings with it an era of high-stakes diplomacy, economic recalibration, and strategic defense considerations for the Philippines. While Trump’s policies could offer advantages in terms of military support and countering regional threats, they also introduce significant risks that demand strategic foresight.
For Filipino leaders, businesses, and policymakers, the key lies in cultivating a multi-dimensional approach that balances security needs with economic resilience. Diversifying alliances, building new economic partnerships, and adopting a carefully crafted foreign policy that aligns with both U.S. and regional interests will enable the Philippines to maintain stability and sovereignty amid shifting global dynamics.
GBSE is committed to equipping Filipino businesses and policymakers with the insights and strategies needed to navigate these complexities effectively. By staying informed and adaptable, the Philippines can not only weather the challenges of Trump’s presidency but also find new opportunities for growth and leadership on the world stage.